روشهای تعیین نقطه تغییر در مرگ ومیر

Title

change point detection in mortality data

English Abstract

Background: Mortality refers to death that occurs within a population. It is linked to many factors such as age, sex, race, occupation and social class. Change in the pattern of mortality trend can affect the population standards of living and health care. This event makes a change point is occurred in mortality rates. The aim of this study is to detect change point in Iranian mortality data during1970 to 2007. Methods: We use several frequencies and Bayesian methods to estimate the change point in mortality data by Poisson model. Results: All methods show that a change has been occurred in mortality rates of Iran at year 1993. Conclusion: Results showed that pattern and rate of mortality before and after change point is not similar.

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