استفاده از شبکه های عصبی برای پیش بینی کوتاه مدت بار شبکه توزیع برق

جلیلی ایرانی, عارف and پویان, محمد and ابراهیمیان, همایون and محمدنیا, علیرضا (1386) استفاده از شبکه های عصبی برای پیش بینی کوتاه مدت بار شبکه توزیع برق. در: 3rd International Conference on Information Technologies & Telecommunication, Oct 4-6 , 2007, Ganja -Azerbaijan.



Application of Neural Networks for Short Term Load Forecasting

English Abstract

Short-term load forecasting (STLF) plays an important role for the economic and secure operation of power systems. This paper addresses an issue of the optimal design of a neural-network based short-term load forecaster. Currently, there is no systematic methodology for optimal design and training of an artificial neural network for load forecasting. This study describes the process of developing a multilayer, feed forward neural network for load forecasting, and then presents a heuristic search algorithm for performing an important task of this process, i.e. optimal network structure design. In addition, the input layer of the proposed ANN model receives all relevant information that contribute extensively to the prediction process. The proposed method is applied to STLF of the local utility. Data are clustered due to the differences in their characteristics. In this way, a solution is provided for all load types, including working days and weekends. A traditional ARIMA model is constructed for the same data as a benchmark. The proposed methodology gives lower percent errors all the time. Thus, it can be applied to automatically design an optimal load forecaster based on historical data

Item Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
زبان سند : انگلیسی
نویسنده اول :عارف جلیلی ایرانی
نویسنده :محمد پویان
نویسنده :همایون ابراهیمیان
نویسنده :علیرضا محمدنیا
کلیدواژه ها (انگلیسی):ANN , STLF , Load forecasting , Power systems
Subjects:W Health professions > Medical Informatics , Information Systems W 26/55.I4
Divisions:Faculty of Medicine > Department of Basic Sciences > Department of Health Information Management
ID Code:6676
Deposited By: Engineer Alireza MohammadNia
Deposited On:24 Nov 1394 07:25
Last Modified:25 Nov 1394 05:37

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