اپیدیولوژی روند انواع سل در ایران : یک مطالعه مقطعی

ارسنگ, شهرام and منصوریان, مرجان and امانی, فیروز and جعفری کوشکی, توحید (1396) اپیدیولوژی روند انواع سل در ایران : یک مطالعه مقطعی. Journal of Research in Health Sciences (JRHS) ــ 17 (2). pp. 1-6. شاپا 2228-7795


Official URL: http://journals.umsha.ac.ir/index.php/JRHS/article...


Epidemiologic Trend of Smear-Positive, Smear-Negative, Extra Pulmonary and Relapse of Tuberculosis in Iran (2001-2015); A Repeated Cross-Sectional Study

English Abstract

Background: Trend analysis is an important tool to monitor epidemiological changes of disease over time to guide resource allocation. This study aimed to study incidence trends and change-points of smear positive, smear negative, extra-pulmonary and relapse of tuberculosis (TB) in Iran from 2001 to 2015. Study design: Repeated cross-sectional study Methods: Nonlinear segmented regression was used to describe TB incidence trends; annual percent change (APC), average annual percent changes (AAPC) and change points for each disease separately. Results: Of 154930 TB cases, 49.8% were smear positive, 19.7% smear negative, 27.32% extra-pulmonary and 3.18% relapse. For all TB types, the peak of incidence was in 2001. Two change point were estimated for all TB types (P<0.05). The APC of all TB types were -6.51 (95% CI: -7.4, -5.4) for first and 2.4 (95% CI: 0. 7, 4.1) for second segment. Although the trends were significantly decreasing from 2001 to 2015 for smear positive (AAPC=2.06%), smear negative (AAPC=3.57%), extra pulmonary (AAPC=3.2%) and relapse (AAPC=3.3%), the AAPCs of trends were not significant from 2006 to 2015. Except for Extra pulmonary TB (APC=4-.9%, 95%CI:-10, 1.2), the APCs of the last segments were significant. Conclusions: Even though the TB incidence rates were decreasing, the amount of reductions seem inadequate, to reach the goals of TB control in Iran. Especially, the increase in the extra-pulmonary TB rates is a point of concern that highlights more attention is required for these cases. It is essential to improve economic supports toward TB control, illegal immigrants, data registry systems and physician's sensitivity in TB detection.

Item Type:Article
زبان سند : انگلیسی
نویسنده اول :شهرام ارسنگ
نویسنده مسئول :مرجان منصوریان
نویسنده :فیروز امانی
نویسنده :توحید جعفری کوشکی
Additional Information:Indexed in: Pubmed/Medline, Scopus, EMBASE, ISC, SID, Magiran ISC SID
کلیدواژه ها (انگلیسی):Iran, Poisson distribution, Relapse, Tuberculosis
Subjects:WA Public Health
WA Public Health
Divisions:Faculty of Medicine > Department of Pediatrics , Community Medicine
Faculty of Medicine > Department of Basic Sciences > Department of Vital Statistics
ID Code:8864
Deposited By: Dr Firouz Amani
Deposited On:08 Apr 1396 05:02
Last Modified:02 Sep 1401 09:53

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